State of the Union

President Obama on Tuesday in his State of the Union address will touch on five “pillars” to ensure the competitiveness and growth of the US: innovation, education, infrastructure, deficit reduction, reforming government.

Preparing for meetings in the Philippines, Thailand, Brunei and Singapore this week – before heading to Miami for two days and then back to Hong Kong – I contemplated the state of the global mutual fund union and its pillars.

Over the last few months I have continued my global meetings with governments, institutional investors and intermediary professional fund buyers and some of the pillars they outlined to me match President Obama’s.

Education: Distributors and institutions all emphasize their need for help in educating investors. While hot themes and great short-term performance are often in the limelight (and a key success factor for quarterly product placement), effective service and creative ways to ensure long-term education of the industry and its investors are the determining factors for developing strategic partnerships (of which there are fewer post-crisis).

Innovation: Not just on the all important product front, but in all aspects of doing business – the use of mobile technologies, tailored information delivery, creative and fast market updates, thought leadership around memorable stories, or marketing campaigns.

Infrastructure: For the fund industry, the biggest infrastructure components of business success are streamlining internal decision making globally and allowing business development teams room to build complex multi-regional and multi-business unit relationships over multi-year time periods (discussed in-depth as headquarter centricity, speed of response time in an age of compliance paranoia, lost in translation and CDA teams in “the Seven Secrets of Distribution”).

Deficit reduction: While counterintuitive, there is a parallel for the fund industry as well. The leading fund firms during the crisis quickly increased their resources to hire the key people that were let go by firms that downsized to reduce fixed costs. This turned out to be a double-whammy, because the firms that invested during the crisis not only got great deals for talented people (that are grateful for the job), but they only proved their commitment to their clients when others pulled back. Thus, getting back to the theme of deficits, these firms responded swiftly with major investments in the downturn and are now reaping the rewards as their products reach blockbuster status.

Reforming government: The fund industry is in the midst of their own meaningful reform process. Within the European Union, UCITS are at a crossroads as the discussion between traditional and alternative investment vehicles heats up. While all absorbing within Europe, the industry should not forget that here in Asia regulators, associations, fund buyers and asset managers alike are closely observing the discussion. Moreover, as the metatrends of a growing global middle class in the region and a trend West-to-East and East-to-West take shape, Asia is thinking strategically where the developed world is thinking short-term. Following the discussions of a variety of Asia passports and China gateways, Asia is going on the offensive.

HK Invest in March is holding a seminar on the advantages of Hong Kong as the regional financial services hub and gateway into China with participation by the government, the regulator, and the industry. Where? In the heart of New York.

The asset management’s state of the union does look brighter than that of the US, but the pillars are essentially the same.

Tune in on Tuesday and listen to President Obama’s advice for the fund industry.

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State of the Union

President Obama on Tuesday in his State of the Union address will touch on five “pillars” to ensure the competitiveness and growth of the US: innovation, education, infrastructure, deficit reduction, reforming government.

Preparing for meetings in the Philippines, Thailand, Brunei and Singapore this week – before heading to Miami for two days and then back to Hong Kong – I contemplated the state of the global mutual fund union and its pillars.

Over the last few months I have continued my global meetings with governments, institutional investors and intermediary professional fund buyers and some of the pillars they outlined to me match President Obama’s.

Education: Distributors and institutions all emphasize their need for help in educating investors. While hot themes and great short-term performance are often in the limelight (and a key success factor for quarterly product placement), effective service and creative ways to ensure long-term education of the industry and its investors are the determining factors for developing strategic partnerships (of which there are fewer post-crisis).

Innovation: Not just on the all important product front, but in all aspects of doing business – the use of mobile technologies, tailored information delivery, creative and fast market updates, thought leadership around memorable stories, or marketing campaigns.

Infrastructure: For the fund industry, the biggest infrastructure components of business success are streamlining internal decision making globally and allowing business development teams room to build complex multi-regional and multi-business unit relationships over multi-year time periods (discussed in-depth as headquarter centricity, speed of response time in an age of compliance paranoia, lost in translation and CDA teams in “the Seven Secrets of Distribution”).

Deficit reduction: While counterintuitive, there is a parallel for the fund industry as well. The leading fund firms during the crisis quickly increased their resources to hire the key people that were let go by firms that downsized to reduce fixed costs. This turned out to be a double-whammy, because the firms that invested during the crisis not only got great deals for talented people (that are grateful for the job), but they only proved their commitment to their clients when others pulled back. Thus, getting back to the theme of deficits, these firms responded swiftly with major investments in the downturn and are now reaping the rewards as their products reach blockbuster status.

Reforming government: The fund industry is in the midst of their own meaningful reform process. Within the European Union, UCITS are at a crossroads as the discussion between traditional and alternative investment vehicles heats up. While all absorbing within Europe, the industry should not forget that here in Asia regulators, associations, fund buyers and asset managers alike are closely observing the discussion. Moreover, as the metatrends of a growing global middle class in the region and a trend West-to-East and East-to-West take shape, Asia is thinking strategically where the developed world is thinking short-term. Following the discussions of a variety of Asia passports and China gateways, Asia is going on the offensive.

HK Invest in March is holding a seminar on the advantages of Hong Kong as the regional financial services hub and gateway into China with participation by the government, the regulator, and the industry. Where? In the heart of New York.

The asset management’s state of the union does look brighter than that of the US, but the pillars are essentially the same.

Tune in on Tuesday and listen to President Obama’s advice for the fund industry.

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HSBC reshuffle: short-lived return to its roots?

HSBC CEO Geoghegan was a key promoter of the group’s Asian focus in recent years – the subprime issues in the US made that decision somewhat easier, emphasizing the return to its roots by relocating back to HK, alongside chairman Stephen Green.

Now, after losing the internal battle for chairmanship, it looks like Geoghegan won’t even be able to enjoy staying in the “taipan” house on Middle Gap Road (renovations are ongoing), and the power base – with Flint and Gulliver – will shift back to London (although Gulliver is a bit of a wild card, since he is a HK aficionado). Green is back as well to become trade minister in January.

Of course, HSBC’s growth and revenues will continue to come from the region, but the fanfare last year of moving headquarters and corporate focus back to its roots now looks questionable to some observers in the city (the city in this case being neither London nor NY, but HK).

HSBC has and can continue to avoid some of the massive mistakes of its competitors. A logical focus on wealth management (from a customer base) and Asia/emerging markets (from a product perspective) makes Asia the strategic center piece (alongside LatAm, to some extent), but of course there are also opportunities in Good Old Europe and the US (ironically, the US opportunity is significant since it would be growth from a relatively small base).

The group is thus likely to bet on the same horse; the horse racing nights just won’t be hosted by Geoghegan any more.

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Competition from the East

A few weeks ago Nikko announced that they hired Asia industry celebrity Blair Pickerell to head up the region, side by side with Tim McCarthy. Japan, as it turns out, for a while now has been working hard to eliminate the Asia “ex-Japan” distinction in an attempt to become a regional force.

Which makes sense, if you think about it, given all the thematic success stories with crossover appeal in recent years. Nowadays NRI and others focus on roadshows and research trips to HK, Singapore and Taiwan in lieu of London and NY.

Whether Nikko indeed will become the next Jardine Fleming remains to be seen, but the region by and large is definitely flexing its muscle – remember Tony Tan in Davos? (“a once in a lifetime opportunity for Asian firms to grab global market share”).

Mirae is beefing up international efforts, ICICI is pushing in Europe, OCBC is sub advisor for the latest regional QDII themes, ten out of ten Chinese asset managers now have offices in HK, Macquarie buying Delaware, Bank of China launching a private bank in Geneva with renminbi denominated Swiss equity funds, Pickerell joining Nikko, and the list goes on.

Thus, leading international fund managers these days look at China and the region as their biggest competitors in 3-5 years. Strategic planning post-crisis not only has to address the shrinking list of partners and select lists for professional fund buyers and the complex mix of centralized advisory efforts vs. local decision making, or the balance between fixed income and equity strategies and thematic vs. core investment categories.

A growing component will be to benefit from Asian wealth (collaboration) while defending global market share from Asian firms that see a golden age for their business (competition).

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News for BA

I have been flying BA for many years and have always been of the opinion that, compared with its European or US counterparts, the quality and service is far superior.

You get into JFK, have dinner before the flight, fully reclining seats/beds on board and attention to detail.

Sometimes it takes another pair of eyes to question your beliefs: last night I flew from LHR to HK and as I am settling in, I hear “this is the last time I’m flying BA” from the opposing seat.

She, an investment banker from China as it turns out later, had to ask a number of times for a copy of the SCMP. C’mon, that’s not a deal breaker.

Then BA didn’t have the meal choice she wanted… Again, not that big a deal… The congee for breakfast, granted, was awful.

Then the TV system first didn’t work and when it did, I started to put things in perspective.

The screens on Cathay are about three times bigger and technologically we are talking about a 1980s 364 vs. an iPad. The beds are bigger, flatter and the pillows and blankets from another galaxy (think roach infested motel vs Slh). The food menu is vastly superior and the service impeccable. Cathay in addition to all kinds of teas features the best cappuccini this side from Milan.

Don’t get me wrong, I still like BA and don’t mind flying with them – in a quaint anachronistic sort of nod to good ol times, but they can’t hold a candle to Cathay, ANA or even Dragon Air.

Speaking of which, the Chinese of course in addition to deep sea diving and green energy are now focusing their attention on building super jets. Don’t even get me started on comparing the airports in China, Singapore or HK to LHR, CDG or JFK.

Good night and good luck, developed world.

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Is Mona Lisa toast?

Is Mona Lisa Toast?

Sometimes a picture says more than a thousand words. K11, a high end shopping area in Kowloon features this Mona Lisa version, made of toast.

So I started to think, is she?

To some extent, yes. Asia has pulled ahead in many areas of the world. Exports from China helped Germany report declining unemployment and record export numbers, HSBC moved its chairman to HK, heads of private banks are packing their bags en masse to move to Asia and the region by and large helped the world recover from the crisis faster.

Moreover, long-term net flows to mutual funds in the last five years stand at $1 trillion for Asia, compared to half that in Europe.

Earlier this week I had dinner with a Parisian executive that ten years ago built a private banking unit in Paris and now heads up Asia. He loves to go back to Paris – to visit. Asia is the opportunity for him and his company. He is not alone.

A number of US and European firms in recent years moved their heads of global product development to Asia-Pacific, given the much greater focus on product innovation and new fund launches here. DWS launched a climate change fund in Taiwan before exporting it to Germany and the US. BOC started a private bank in Geneva offering Swiss equity funds denominated in Renminbi. Japan uses both its US and Brazil links to structure melting pot products to offer to its retail clientele – conceived in NY, invested via Brazil, structured in London, domiciled in Cayman, sold in the streets of Japan.

Welcome to the future.

I spent this past week with clients in mainland China to discuss business models of international fund managers and how they might be able to offer their expertise outside of China via Hong Kong – seven of the top ten Chinese fund managers now have Hong Kong subsidiaries to explore opportunities; and dozens of them flew to NY last month to a investment conference on China/US. I presented with John Kerry and the chair of Lazard on the future of this relationship (competition and collaboration) and John Kerry during the Q&A argued that Asia will avoid many of the mistakes the US 401k system has made.

Europe still has the Mona Lisa and Louis Vuitton – but most of the people nowadays looking at it are from Asia and on their way back to the hotel they stop at the LV flagship store on the Champs Elysees to buy a few dozen bags.

In Asia, in the meantime, Mona Lisa is toast.

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Asia on the rise: service, risotto and red ferraris

Tyler brûlé this weekend called on London to get with it if they want to remain competitive.

He has a point – or two. As I discussed on many occasions in the past here, Asia’s service levels are unmatched, so no surprises here. On the contrary, Western service levels seem to be going the opposite way and that’s the scary part.

Exhibit a: At a recent investment conference on China in NY, American Airlines was one of the sponsors and the VP for sales approached me after my panel.

After giving him an earful about how bad my experiences with Airlines Anonymous had been, he, to his credit, admitted that Emirates’ economy was better than their first- ouch.

Exhibit b: After landing in HK earlier this week I am at the spa and in comes one of the attendants, looks at me and without missing a beat says: “welcome back Mr. Enskat, how is NY?”. The last time I saw him was in April. Well, that’s the Mandarin, so not really surprising.

So let’s go to a better example,

exhibit c: the same night I go to one of my favorite Vietnamese places at IFC two, Lian. I sit down and one of the waiters comes up to me and welcomes me back. I smile and say “good memory”, and he goes on to say “last time you were sitting over there with your two colleagues- will they be joining you tonight?”. Ridiculous.

Wherever you look and go in Asia, it surprises you, positively. Only the former is true for the West and unfortunately not in a good way.

As Brûlé pointed out, London and the rest of the West have a lot of work to do “to stay relevant”.

As I am finishing a mushroom risotto and espresso at Classified on Hollywood road, a young Asian girl finishes her cappuccino, pays, and drives off in her red Ferrari.

Time to listen to Dylan.

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First Half 2010 Global Mutual Fund Flow Review & Outlook

1H/2010: $500 billion in net flows to Mutual Funds worldwide; Templeton surpasses Blackrock and Carmignac

Asia Investor: Franklin Templeton, Nomura Asset Management conquer first half

Citywire: Templeton leapfrogs rivals to take top spot for fund flows

FTfm: Battle for Asset Flows Set to Deepen

Despite a challenging second quarter, net flows to long-term mutual funds worldwide in the first half of 2010 approached $500 billion, twice as much as in 1H/2009, according to Strategic Insight (SI), a business intelligence provider to the fund industry, as institutional investors redeemed $625 billion from money market funds.

“Year-to-date, bond funds continued to be the main driver of flows, adding a net $315 billion, followed by equity/mixed funds with a combined net intake of $120 billion; ‘other’ funds, mostly alternative “Newcits” and absolute return funds, collected almost $50 billion in cash flows, a sign of continued convergence between the traditional and alternative fund space,” noted Daniel Enskat, Senior Managing Director and Head of Global Consulting at SI.

Among the key product innovation and distribution trends of the first half:

The Fantastic Four – Global Fixed Income, Emerging Market, Asia-Pac and Absolute Return: Top cash flow categories include global fixed income, Emerging Market and Asia Pacific bonds and equities, alongside innovative alternatives and absolute return.

Billionaires’ Fund Club – $150 billion to 30 products: The top ten existing products in the US, Europe and Asia combined accounted for $150 billion in cash flows year-to-date, with another $30 billion in cash to the most successful fund launches.

Templeton on Top: Franklin Templeton surpassed Blackrock to become the best selling cross-border long-term fund manager in the first half of the year, followed by Carmignac, Pictet, Allianz and Schroders.

Profitability variance – not all flows are created equal: Significantly different management fees for multi-billion dollar flagship funds resulted in a different profitability picture for top fund flow managers.

Main Street/Wall Street Rapprochement: The challenges of the second quarter could provide an opportunity for investment managers to cautiously reengage with and move investors from fixed income to selected equity themes in the second half of the year.

“SI fund flow data from around the world shows that over half of the top selling funds in the first half of 2010 were ‘bridge products’, moving investors from a thematic story towards a longer-term investment solution”, Enskat said, “with a growing concentration of flows to fewer managers and products, as distributors are restructuring their fund selection criteria post-crisis towards greater partnerships with selected firms”.

Clients can access the study at:

http://www.sionline.com
http://www.strategicinsightglobal.com
http://www.globalfunddistribution.com
http://www.assetinternational.com

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Hurt locker vs Avatar

Avatar, the most successful movie ever made, and the Hurt Locker, it’s David competitor, which took the Oscar.

How does that relate to asset management? Blackrock vs. Carmignace, Pimco vs. Ivy, and many many more examples.

We are seeing increasingly more of this concentration trend in the data.

Professional fund buyers, just like consumers, have limited attention span, more complex responsibilities, and less and less time to make decisions under greater uncertainty – we discussed this over dinner with Nassim Taleb recently in detail.

This triggers back to basics responses.

In mobile computing, this translates into Apple’s one button on the iPhone to deliver simplicity around great complexity.

In movies, it means you watch the Avatars and the Hurt Lockers and not much else.

In finance, it means mutual funds as a structure and blockbuster themes as the concrete conduit to invest for the long and not so long term.

The rewards are higher: $50+ billion to Bill Gross in a year, $35 billion to Templeton, $20 billion to Carmignac, as are the risks: 60% of leaders disappear each 5-10 years.

This leaves less room for error and shifts greater responsibility to brand, marketing and client service, since products never deliver all the time.

It’s when they disappoint – even ever so slightly – when the holistic customer experience takes over along with brand equity.

For fund managers this means tailored information delivery, dedicated microsites, local language support and regional and local websites and teams.

Welcome to the new normal, the high octane new world of back to basics and complex simplicity.

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Panel with John Kerry on US-China relations and asset management

In early June I gave a keynote speech at a US-China investment conference alongside John Kerry in his capacity of chairman of the U.S. Senate Council on Foreign Relations and the vice-chair of Lazard.

In the panel discussion with Kerry two of the larger themes were around retirement investing as well as competition and cooperation between China and the US.

On the question of retirement investing, we typically discuss the 401k or Superannuation system as a prerequisite for a thriving mutual fund industry. And indeed, Europe under the leadership of Efama recently put out a paper on the topic arguing for a regional long-term savings vehicle.

Kerry argued that the US will face a number of challenges for the defined contribution system in the future with meaningful structural changes to maintain its purpose and to remain relevant. I raised the issue of many industry experts arguing that DC is needed in Asia and China to turn speculators into investors and create a sustainable industry, but Kerry answered that China could use the lack of such a system as of today to its advantage and create a system from scratch that avoids all existing pitfalls and uses the countries growth to set up a forward looking retirement industry that accounts for cultural differences.

Our view for some time has been that instead of looking at developed markets and what can be adopted, emerging economies and especially China as the fastest growing market in the world can take leadership in defining how systems can be designed to account for investment preferences and asset allocation mindsets of the East to lead the way into a “new normal”.

More details on the panels and keynote speeches from the Chinese asset managers will follow soon.

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