Wherever you look these days, the metatrend “West-to-East” manifests itself.
A few observations from my discussions in Europe and the Middle East this week:
Despite the wide-spread criticism of its domestic focus, China is doing its share to stimulate the global economy. Let’s take two interesting proxies, oil and Swiss watches.
– Chinese shoppers in Milan: The Annual Report of China Outbound Tourism Development 2009-2010 estimates 54 million tourists would go abroad in 2010 – and indeed, most of the high-end shops near Via Spiga in Milan this week were frequented by Chinese (while Europeans window-shopped). Having breakfast with a reporter in Milan at the Principe di Savoia this week, the waiters didn’t care much about Mary J. Blige being there, but were intrigued by all the Chinese businessmen.
– A quarterly review of Swiss luxury watches showed that Asia, and especially China, helped the industry survive the downturn. Bernard Fornas, CEO of Cartier, in a recent FT interview stated: “If you go to Shanghai or Beijing, you see all these very rich young people and they buy. They buy like crazy.” Swiss watch export figures showed an 87% rise in sales to the country in January. Thus, just like auto or digital camera makers, Swiss watch makers are now creating designs specifically catered to the preferences of Chinese customers. Au revoir, old Europe.
– Saudi Arabia focuses on China instead of U.S.: The NY Times this weekend commented on a shift in the geopolitics of oil due to China’s growth. Saudi Arabia exported more oil to China than the U.S. last year. The head of Saudi Aramco, Khalid al-Falih sees this as a “long-term transition… the writing is on the wall. China is the growth market for petroleum.”
Discussing Middle East business trends this week with clients and boards, the expanding links between the Middle East, Southeast Asia and China will influence thematic product preferences (and distribution trends) for SWFs, HNW investors and pension funds greatly. ADIA this week published its first ever annual report and highlighted that 36% of its workforce is from Asia, compared to 31% from the UAE, 12% from Europe and 8% from the U.S.
The ratio of Asia employees to the U.S. and Europe for the largest SWF in the world is 5:1 and 3:1 respectively, and the chairman of the Singapore SWF calls it a “once in a lifetime opportunity” for Asian firms to take away global market share from the west… west-to-east on steroids. U.S. and European firms need to act now to not be left behind.
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